May 6, 2014

Daily Fantasy Picks for a Tuesday

Pitching

  • Homer Bailey– By all accounts, there’s nothing wrong with his stuff.  His velocity is good.  He’s been the victim of a bit of bad luck, with a BABIP around .400.  His strikout rate is the highest of his career, believe it or not.  His last outing was exceedingly promising, as he went 8IP in only his second quality start of the year.  Most interesting, from 2011-2013, Bailey’s road ERA was 3.31, versus more than 4.3 at home.  I think he excels in Boston tonight.

Hitting

  • Pedro Alvarez   – This guy is as streaky as they come.  When he’s cold his average easily parks itself south of .200.  When he’s hot, he hits homeruns in bunches.  He has two dingers in his last four games, including one last night.  He’s also 10 for his last 28.  He faces right hander Tim Hudson tonight, whom he has a good track record at 4-10 with a longball.
  • Victor Martinez – .385 this year from the right side with two of his five homers.

Lineup Stack

  • Texas Rangers– Nacasio is mediocre at best.  The Rangers have a lot of lefties versus that right handed arm.  Choo is heating up, Fielder is bound to break out, and Martin, Murphy and Arencibia all provide some good value.  While everyone else is watching Tulo and his ungodly numbers, pay attention to the ballclub out of Arlington.

Value

  • Curtis Granderson – Somewhere between the 4 train and the 7 train, Granderson got lost on ride over to Citi field.  He hit .145 in April with just one homerun.  However, he’s 8 for his first 20 in May with two homers.  He faces righty Henderson Alvarez tonight.

Pick of the Day

  • Bailey – Those road splits have me intrigued.  He’s bound to get on track.  I think Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto & company help him get it going tonight.  I love all my hitter picks tonight.  Bailey’s the make or break.

May 2, 2014

Daily Fantasy Picks for Friday Night

Get your Fanduel DFBC Qualifier On!

Pitching

  • Felix Hernandez– Daily fantasy baseball is a fickle beast, no doubt.  Two sessions ago, I forgot to take weather into account with a few games and I lucked my way into an exceedingly winning night.  Despite two guys sitting, not only did I win my heads up and leagues, I actually placed in a few tournaments.  In poker, we’d have called me the donkey.  Last session, I hit great, but lost all because Matt Cain cut his finger making a sandwich and no one said anything until it was too late.  WTF!?!  So tonight, in honor of lucky, I’m going with King Felix.  Do you need me to offer some splits?  In the spirit of being data driven, I’ll tell you he’s got a 3.12 era away from Safeco over the last three years; better than his 3.27 at home.  But c’mon, it’s King Felix versus the Astros.  Enough said.  He gets a win and K’s 10.

Hitting

  • Robbie Cano   – I think his less than warm welcome in New York might have been what he needed to really get things going.  He has hit in 9 straight.  He’s 13-39 in that period with four doubles and a slew of RBI’s.  I like him for a bomb or two tonight vs. Peacock at MinuteMaid.
  • Matt Weiters – He hit a walk-off homerun last night to complete the O’s 2-game sweep.

Lineup Stack

  • Baltimore Orioles– Ricky Nolasco sucks.  Markakis hit 2 hr’s yesterday, Weiters hit one.  Machado is back.  Hardy and Delmon are both coming back into town.  There’s some good value in the O’s lineup.

Value

  • Billy Butler – I get it.  He’s been awful thus far.  But a can’t go lower price for a guy who hits in the middle of that order and has a history of hitting homers and for average.  He’ll bottom soon.  Considering he can’t go lower, I’m calling the bottom tonight.
  • Sean Rodriguez – He costs almost nothing and he’s hitting in the middle of the Rays order tonight against Nuno.

Pick of the Day

  • Cano – Should I guarantee a homerun?

April 29, 2014

Daily Fantasy Picks for Tuesday Evening

The most important skill in making tonight’s daily fantasy baseball picks … meteorology.  The weather is not your friend.  Rainouts in daily fantasy mean no stats.  There’s no replacement player.  A replacement game will happen, but not today.  If your player doesn’t play, you get zero.  On the flip side, you can get good players on low percentage plays (others aren’t starting them) because of the weather if you’re willing to take the risk.  One strategy is to use your home city as an advantage.  If I actually know the weather in Baltimore is much better than the forecast, I might take the risk.  Inside knowledge is the name of the game.

The cities I’m avoiding tonight are Baltimore, Philly, New York, and Minneapolis.  (Baltimore and Minneapolis have already been postponed, I believe)

With that in mind, here are the picks…

Pitching

  • Matt Cain– Cain is the kind of pitcher who can strikeout ten on any given night.  Tonight there are quite a few guys in that camp including Jose Fernandez, Justin Verlander and Gio Gonzalez.  Cain is a better value than those guys, leaving more salary to spend on hitting.  Cain pitches well at home with slightly better splits in SF over the last three years.  His era is just over three at his home park during that stretch.  No Padre has had much success against him and plenty of Giants have fared well against his opponent, Eric Stults.

Hitting

  • Matt Joyce   – Matt Joyce walked five times the other day.  5 times!  That’s the sign of a hitter who is seeing the ball well, being pitched around, or both. He is hitting nearly .400 off righties and he faces right-hander John Lackey tonight in Boston.  He is hitting third in the Rays order.  We’ll see if he can park one right around Pesky pole.
  • Buster Posey – 7 for 17 lifetime off Stults.  5 for his last 11 including a 2-4 last night.  Heating up!

Lineup Stack

  • San Francisco Giants– Eric Stults has not had success against Posey (7-17), Sandoval (12-24), or a handful of others.  In all, 6 different Giants have hit a combined 9 homeruns off the southpaw.

Value

  • George Springer – Again.  Yes, again.  I’m gonna play this guy until he hits one 430 feet.
  • Carlos Santana – He hit one out last night.  He’s 7-14 lifetime off Weaver.  He’s better than the meager salary indicates.

Pick of the Day

  • Posey – The trend is your friend.  He’s heating up with a history of success against his opponent.