Daily Fantasy Baseball

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Pitching

• Clayton Kershaw – He dominated last year’s second half.  He might repeat for the Cy Young.  He’s 2-1 with a 2.63 era over his last three starts.  His splits indicate a 2.27 at home, where he is tonight against the Diamondbacks.  Pitching is the key to success tonight, with a short lineup.  You can win daily fantasy baseball heads up games with just a top starter.  You can also pick Matt Moore tonight.  You can even pick Greinke at home vs. the Bo Sox.  I’m going with Kershaw because of his home era and his good career record vs. the DBacks.

Hitting

• Yadier Molina – The law of averages almost makes me want to stay away from it.  Molina is 7-8 lifetime with a homerun against Nationals starter Edwin Jackson.  Think Molina see the ball pretty well off of him?

Lineup Stack

• Giants– This is as much about betting against someone as it is betting on someone.  I’ve got to go against Astros starter Lyles tonight.  He hasn’t been awful – 4.24 with 13 K’s in his last three starts – but he han’t been great.  Furthermore, I spent much of the budget on Kershaw, meaning I need a relatively cheap lineup.  The Giants fit this better than most.  Considered the Royals, but nobody stands out against Porcello.  I also considered the Nats against Cards lefty Garcia, but they are simply too expensive.  I am rounding out the roster with Morse, though.

Value

I’m reaching to guys like Brandon Crawford and Gregor Blanco.

Pick of the Day

• Kershaw

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Results

After having some decent picks of late – here and here and here – last night’s picks were brutal.  I managed to salvage only one head to head win in about six games played.

Pitching

• Mat Latos – Why does he have one t in his name?  I have no idea.  I only know the dude is good.  Not only does he have good numbers on the year, but he has only given up one earned run in his last three starts.  Furthermore, his era is nearly a run lower at home, where he pitches today.  In addition, he likes pitching during the day better than at night – a 3.19 era vs. a 3.88.  He has 134 strikeouts in 148 2/3 innings.  Look for a quality start today.

Hitting

• Adrian Gonzalez – FHe is 10 for 29 with 2 homeruns off Kuroda. In addition, he is 7 for his last 22 with two homers and eight rbi’s.  He homered yesterday.
• Matt Joyce – 5 for 13 lifetime with a homer off of Greinke.  The new Angels pitcher has been struggling a little bit since the trade.  At some point, he will have a masterful outing.  It might be today.  If it isn’t, look to Joyce to have a big afternoon in the middle of the D-Rays order.  He had off yesterday, as he has been slumping.  Looking for him to breakout today.

Lineup Stack

For some strange reason, I’m not stacking lineups today.  This violates most daily fantasy baseball strategy that you read and that I usually employ.  I just can’t find a team I like to stack where I can purchase nearly the entire team.  If you insist, you can try to stack the Reds or the Dodgers.

Just before hitting publish, I found a lineup I like.  And I like it a lot.  I thought Justin Masterson was a dark horse starter for Sunday, so I did my research.  He’s awful on the road, has a terrible history against the A’s, and a terrible history in Oakland.  He’s better in day games, but it’s not enough to make up for these terrible splits.  I like the A’s lineup.

Value

• Mike Moustakes – 2-6 off of southpaw ChiSox starter Jose Qunitana.  He homered in last night’s contest, I believe in his final at-bat.
• It being Sunday, check the daily baseball lineups and pick any second catcher you like for a chance at some deep value.

Daily Fantasy Baseball Pick of the Day

• Mat Latos – I don’t care where the other t went, this is your guy for a summer Sunday.  The pick is so obvious I’m worried about it.