August 19, 2012

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Results

After having some decent picks of late – here and here and herelast night’s picks were brutal.  I managed to salvage only one head to head win in about six games played.

Pitching

  • Mat Latos – Why does he have one t in his name?  I have no idea.  I only know the dude is good.  Not only does he have good numbers on the year, but he has only given up one earned run in his last three starts.  Furthermore, his era is nearly a run lower at home, where he pitches today.  In addition, he likes pitching during the day better than at night – a 3.19 era vs. a 3.88.  He has 134 strikeouts in 148 2/3 innings.  Look for a quality start today.

Hitting

  • Adrian Gonzalez – FHe is 10 for 29 with 2 homeruns off Kuroda. In addition, he is 7 for his last 22 with two homers and eight rbi’s.  He homered yesterday.
  • Matt Joyce – 5 for 13 lifetime with a homer off of Greinke.  The new Angels pitcher has been struggling a little bit since the trade.  At some point, he will have a masterful outing.  It might be today.  If it isn’t, look to Joyce to have a big afternoon in the middle of the D-Rays order.  He had off yesterday, as he has been slumping.  Looking for him to breakout today.

Lineup Stack

For some strange reason, I’m not stacking lineups today.  This violates most daily fantasy baseball strategy that you read and that I usually employ.  I just can’t find a team I like to stack where I can purchase nearly the entire team.  If you insist, you can try to stack the Reds or the Dodgers.

Just before hitting publish, I found a lineup I like.  And I like it a lot.  I thought Justin Masterson was a dark horse starter for Sunday, so I did my research.  He’s awful on the road, has a terrible history against the A’s, and a terrible history in Oakland.  He’s better in day games, but it’s not enough to make up for these terrible splits.  I like the A’s lineup.

Value

  • Mike Moustakes – 2-6 off of southpaw ChiSox starter Jose Qunitana.  He homered in last night’s contest, I believe in his final at-bat.
  • It being Sunday, check the daily baseball lineups and pick any second catcher you like for a chance at some deep value.

Daily Fantasy Baseball Pick of the Day

  • Mat Latos – I don’t care where the other t went, this is your guy for a summer Sunday.  The pick is so obvious I’m worried about it.

August 18, 2012

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Pitching

  • Jake Peavy – Ever since he got to the bigs, Peavy is a candidate to strikeout ten opposing hitters on any given night.  I think tonight is no exception.  Two major things work against Peavy.  First, he has faced the Royals twice this season, giving up 9 earned runs.  Second – and you might be shocked to learn it – the Royals strikeout less than any team in the majors.  (That’s gotta bode well for the young Royals lineup.)  That said, Peavy’s splits look outstanding.  He has a better ERA on the road than at home (2.90 vs. 3.21).  He also has a better ERA at night (2.64 vs. 4.05).  He was excellent in his last outing on Monday, despite the loss.  NOTE:  In a heads-up matchup, you can start Butler, Gordon, or Alcides Escobar alongside of him.  (Pick no more than 2 of the 3.)  This is a daily fantasy baseball strategy move that works well in heads-up format only.

Hitting

  • Nick Markakis – Five for eleven career off Porcello is solid.  He continues to hit leadoff tonight for the O’s.  He is 6 of 19 against the Tigers on the season.
  • Dayan Viciedo – He is 7 of 13 with a homer in his career off the struggling Bruce Chen.  More than that, he is hitting .400 over his last seven with a couple of doubles and a couple of home runs.  He hits sixth in a lineup that should claim a win tonight in Kansas City.

Lineup Stack

  • O’s– Their numbers are outstanding off Porcello.  Here is a list of O’s hitters vs. the Detroit righthander: 4-6; 3-7; 5-11; 4-8; 3-8.  Solid.  Moreover, look for Mark Reynolds to get revenge for getting tossed last night.
  • White Sox – Bruce Chen is back to being the Chen we know and love.  Not great.  (Interesting side note, his twitter handle is @chenmusic, which I think is awesome.)  Though, on the season, he pitches better at home, he still has a 5.56 ERA.  Worse than that, he is 1-1 with a 6.14 over his last three outings.
  • Reds – the ever-hot Cincy ballclub faces Brooks Raley tonight.  Raley, a former 6th round pick, isn’t exactly a household name.  He has had no success thus far at the show.

Value

You can try cheap Oriole starters like Andino or McLouth.  You can also look for a daily fantasy baseball value pick in White Sox catcher Flowers.  Also check out Reds 2B Wilson Valdez, who starts and hits 2nd in the second game of the doubleheader.

Pick of the Day

  • Dayan Viciedo

August 17, 2012

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Pitching

  • Justin Verlander – Verlander has been rock solid and is a leading contender for Cy Young honors.  More importantly, for tonight in particular, the Orioles don’t hit him particularly well.  Tonight’s starting lineup, collectively, has only one homer off Verlander – ever.  And the Detroit ace has been around awhile, as have a few of the O’s hitters.  He’s also 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 28 strikeouts in his last three starts.  One Fanduel strategy tip – pitchers cap out at 9900.  If they couldn’t, and the algorithm was allowed to play out naturally, Verlander would cost you 20% more.  He also has a 1.51 at home with about a K an inning.  He is also 7-0 lifetime vs the O’s.  Personally, I’m rooting for the Birds as I always do.  But with these numbers, I go with my head over my heart.
  • Matt Cain  – IHe’s been slumping a little bit in the last month.  For that reason you can get him cheaper than usual.  He was solid his last time out.  His last appearance was 7 1/3, 2 run ball.  His also struck out 6.  He’s stronger at home, but in Petco I like him.  He is 10-0 with 2 or more runs of support this season.  The Giants face a struggling Ross Ohlendorf.

Hitting

  • Howie Kendrick – Not only is the Angels second baseman starting to get hot – he is 7 for his last 21 with a .400 OBP this month – but he absolutely lights Jamie Shields up!  He is 12-21 with 5xbh off the Rays starter.  Kendrick obviously sees the ball well off him.  Little extra … I like another 2b this evening.  Ian Kinsler crushes lefties – .368 with half his homers.  Against Happ tonight.
  • David Wright – Watch the weather on this one, but I like Wright to start really turning things around.  He had a hit last night.  He is 5-12 with a homer and three doubles off Washington southpaw Ross Detwiler.

Lineup Stack

  • Marlins– Jeff Francis is not good.  The Colorado air still produces a little offensive advantage.  The heart of the lineup, especially Stanton and Lee is pretty solid.
  • Mets – Again, watch the weather, but they hit Detwiler well.  Hairston, Wright, and Bay all look pretty good to me for tonight if the weather holds.

Value

  • Scott Hairston – Assassinates lefties.  Over .300 with 9 homers in only 138 at-bats on the season.
  • Gorkeys Hernandez – Besides having an awesome name, Hernandez is hitting second in a lineup that should do some damage against Francis tonight.  Costs near the minimum.

Pick of the Day

  • Unfortunately, Verlander.  Prove me wrong O’s!