May 17, 2013

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Pitching

  • James Shields – He’s had a tough time getting wins, but he has pitched brilliantly.  Shields is 1-1 with a 1.57 and more than 20 strikeouts in his last three starts.  That’s strong.  He has a winning record against Oakland in his career and, save Daric Barton, no Athletic hits him particularly well.  The KC bats are strong if streaky.  I look for Shields strikeouts and a Royals W.  You get a fair amount of value with Shields in Fanduel.
  • Gio Gonzalez  – Gio pitched beautifully his last time out and actually left with a lead.  The bullpen blew it and he couldn’t log the win.  He pitches in oh so large Petco tonight.  The Nats beat up on the Padres last night.  Strasburg was strong.  I’m looking for Gio to continue the trend and really start to find his groove.  He has been strong against the Padres in limited work.  The one Padre hitter he has a lot of experience against – and not a lot of success – is Carlos Quentin.  If you’re looking to fade Gio, or want to pitch Gio but want some insurance, Quentin is the guy.  (You would do a strategy like that – playing both – in a head to head matchup or in a 3-5 team league.  In bigger tourneys, you’ve got to pick one or the other.)

Hitting

  • JP Arencibia – JP hits cleanup tonight for the Jays.  He’s had a ton of success against Kuroda in his career – going 7 for 15 with 3 XBH and one homer.  He’s been slumping a little at only 2 of his last 17.  Look for a breakout tonight.
  • Brandon Phillips – 9 for 29 lifetime with 5 XBH and a homer off the powerful Cliff Lee.  I like great stats against great pitchers.  It often means the hitter sees the ball exceptionally well for whatever reason.  Phillips also has two homers in the last week including one yesterday.  Ride the heat wave.

Lineup Stack

  • Orioles– The middle of the lineup – Davis, Jones and Markakis (in reverse order, that is) absolutely light up Jeremy Hellickson.  Furthermore, Hellickson struggles a little in Camden Yards, nearly half a run higher than at his home, the Trop.  Most importantly, Hellickson is only pitching to a 5.25 ERA on the year, with a 7.02 in his last three.  Look for him to get roughed up this evening.

Value

  • Nick Markakis – Two homers, six RBI and only two career strikeouts against Hellickson.  Hitting in the three hole this evening at the Yard.
  • David Murphy – Although he’s having a relatively quiet year, Murphy is a strong hittter, capable of smacking out two in a night.  This is especially true versus Rick Porcello.  He’s 6 for 12 with a dinger against the Tigers right hander.  He is also 7 of his last 18 with two homers over the last week.

Pick of the Day

  • David Murphy – Heating up.  Good history.

August 17, 2012

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Pitching

  • Justin Verlander – Verlander has been rock solid and is a leading contender for Cy Young honors.  More importantly, for tonight in particular, the Orioles don’t hit him particularly well.  Tonight’s starting lineup, collectively, has only one homer off Verlander – ever.  And the Detroit ace has been around awhile, as have a few of the O’s hitters.  He’s also 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 28 strikeouts in his last three starts.  One Fanduel strategy tip – pitchers cap out at 9900.  If they couldn’t, and the algorithm was allowed to play out naturally, Verlander would cost you 20% more.  He also has a 1.51 at home with about a K an inning.  He is also 7-0 lifetime vs the O’s.  Personally, I’m rooting for the Birds as I always do.  But with these numbers, I go with my head over my heart.
  • Matt Cain  – IHe’s been slumping a little bit in the last month.  For that reason you can get him cheaper than usual.  He was solid his last time out.  His last appearance was 7 1/3, 2 run ball.  His also struck out 6.  He’s stronger at home, but in Petco I like him.  He is 10-0 with 2 or more runs of support this season.  The Giants face a struggling Ross Ohlendorf.

Hitting

  • Howie Kendrick – Not only is the Angels second baseman starting to get hot – he is 7 for his last 21 with a .400 OBP this month – but he absolutely lights Jamie Shields up!  He is 12-21 with 5xbh off the Rays starter.  Kendrick obviously sees the ball well off him.  Little extra … I like another 2b this evening.  Ian Kinsler crushes lefties – .368 with half his homers.  Against Happ tonight.
  • David Wright – Watch the weather on this one, but I like Wright to start really turning things around.  He had a hit last night.  He is 5-12 with a homer and three doubles off Washington southpaw Ross Detwiler.

Lineup Stack

  • Marlins– Jeff Francis is not good.  The Colorado air still produces a little offensive advantage.  The heart of the lineup, especially Stanton and Lee is pretty solid.
  • Mets – Again, watch the weather, but they hit Detwiler well.  Hairston, Wright, and Bay all look pretty good to me for tonight if the weather holds.

Value

  • Scott Hairston – Assassinates lefties.  Over .300 with 9 homers in only 138 at-bats on the season.
  • Gorkeys Hernandez – Besides having an awesome name, Hernandez is hitting second in a lineup that should do some damage against Francis tonight.  Costs near the minimum.

Pick of the Day

  • Unfortunately, Verlander.  Prove me wrong O’s!

August 16, 2012

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Pitching

  • Luke Hochevar – Before his last outing, Hochevar was 4-2 with a 3.48 over his previous 10 starts.  He claims he knows what he was doing wrong his last time out, and I’m inclined to give the former #1 overall pick the benefit of the doubt this time through.  Opposing hitters hit .268 off him at home vs. .295 on the road.  The A’s have the worst average in the bigs, making them the lightest hitting team around.  I think the Royals and Hochevar get the win.  And, of course, the Hochevar pick get you funds to spend elsewhere as you pick your daily fantasy baseball lineup.

Hitting

  • Miguel Montero – Five of his last twelve, including a homer on Tuesday.  Previous career homer off Lohse.  7-17 against STL this season.  Hitting cleanup.  What’s not to like?
  • Eric Hosmer – If you are playing daily fantasy baseball on Fanduel, and you have to choose between cleanup hitter Billy Butler and the lowly number eight hitter Hosmer, go contrarian and take the value.  Lefty/righty favorable matchup pays tonight.
  • BJ Upton – I love me some BJ Upton.  He’s 9-29 with four career homers off Dan Haren.  He’s also hot lately with 3 homers over the last 7 days.

Lineup Stack

  • Royals– In addition to the Hochevar pick, I’m going to stack the Royals lineup tonight against Dan Straily.

Value

  • Hochevar

Pick of the Day

  • Montero