May 17, 2013

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Pitching

  • James Shields – He’s had a tough time getting wins, but he has pitched brilliantly.  Shields is 1-1 with a 1.57 and more than 20 strikeouts in his last three starts.  That’s strong.  He has a winning record against Oakland in his career and, save Daric Barton, no Athletic hits him particularly well.  The KC bats are strong if streaky.  I look for Shields strikeouts and a Royals W.  You get a fair amount of value with Shields in Fanduel.
  • Gio Gonzalez  – Gio pitched beautifully his last time out and actually left with a lead.  The bullpen blew it and he couldn’t log the win.  He pitches in oh so large Petco tonight.  The Nats beat up on the Padres last night.  Strasburg was strong.  I’m looking for Gio to continue the trend and really start to find his groove.  He has been strong against the Padres in limited work.  The one Padre hitter he has a lot of experience against – and not a lot of success – is Carlos Quentin.  If you’re looking to fade Gio, or want to pitch Gio but want some insurance, Quentin is the guy.  (You would do a strategy like that – playing both – in a head to head matchup or in a 3-5 team league.  In bigger tourneys, you’ve got to pick one or the other.)

Hitting

  • JP Arencibia – JP hits cleanup tonight for the Jays.  He’s had a ton of success against Kuroda in his career – going 7 for 15 with 3 XBH and one homer.  He’s been slumping a little at only 2 of his last 17.  Look for a breakout tonight.
  • Brandon Phillips – 9 for 29 lifetime with 5 XBH and a homer off the powerful Cliff Lee.  I like great stats against great pitchers.  It often means the hitter sees the ball exceptionally well for whatever reason.  Phillips also has two homers in the last week including one yesterday.  Ride the heat wave.

Lineup Stack

  • Orioles– The middle of the lineup – Davis, Jones and Markakis (in reverse order, that is) absolutely light up Jeremy Hellickson.  Furthermore, Hellickson struggles a little in Camden Yards, nearly half a run higher than at his home, the Trop.  Most importantly, Hellickson is only pitching to a 5.25 ERA on the year, with a 7.02 in his last three.  Look for him to get roughed up this evening.

Value

  • Nick Markakis – Two homers, six RBI and only two career strikeouts against Hellickson.  Hitting in the three hole this evening at the Yard.
  • David Murphy – Although he’s having a relatively quiet year, Murphy is a strong hittter, capable of smacking out two in a night.  This is especially true versus Rick Porcello.  He’s 6 for 12 with a dinger against the Tigers right hander.  He is also 7 of his last 18 with two homers over the last week.

Pick of the Day

  • David Murphy – Heating up.  Good history.

August 18, 2012

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Pitching

  • Jake Peavy – Ever since he got to the bigs, Peavy is a candidate to strikeout ten opposing hitters on any given night.  I think tonight is no exception.  Two major things work against Peavy.  First, he has faced the Royals twice this season, giving up 9 earned runs.  Second – and you might be shocked to learn it – the Royals strikeout less than any team in the majors.  (That’s gotta bode well for the young Royals lineup.)  That said, Peavy’s splits look outstanding.  He has a better ERA on the road than at home (2.90 vs. 3.21).  He also has a better ERA at night (2.64 vs. 4.05).  He was excellent in his last outing on Monday, despite the loss.  NOTE:  In a heads-up matchup, you can start Butler, Gordon, or Alcides Escobar alongside of him.  (Pick no more than 2 of the 3.)  This is a daily fantasy baseball strategy move that works well in heads-up format only.

Hitting

  • Nick Markakis – Five for eleven career off Porcello is solid.  He continues to hit leadoff tonight for the O’s.  He is 6 of 19 against the Tigers on the season.
  • Dayan Viciedo – He is 7 of 13 with a homer in his career off the struggling Bruce Chen.  More than that, he is hitting .400 over his last seven with a couple of doubles and a couple of home runs.  He hits sixth in a lineup that should claim a win tonight in Kansas City.

Lineup Stack

  • O’s– Their numbers are outstanding off Porcello.  Here is a list of O’s hitters vs. the Detroit righthander: 4-6; 3-7; 5-11; 4-8; 3-8.  Solid.  Moreover, look for Mark Reynolds to get revenge for getting tossed last night.
  • White Sox – Bruce Chen is back to being the Chen we know and love.  Not great.  (Interesting side note, his twitter handle is @chenmusic, which I think is awesome.)  Though, on the season, he pitches better at home, he still has a 5.56 ERA.  Worse than that, he is 1-1 with a 6.14 over his last three outings.
  • Reds – the ever-hot Cincy ballclub faces Brooks Raley tonight.  Raley, a former 6th round pick, isn’t exactly a household name.  He has had no success thus far at the show.

Value

You can try cheap Oriole starters like Andino or McLouth.  You can also look for a daily fantasy baseball value pick in White Sox catcher Flowers.  Also check out Reds 2B Wilson Valdez, who starts and hits 2nd in the second game of the doubleheader.

Pick of the Day

  • Dayan Viciedo

August 17, 2012

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Pitching

  • Justin Verlander – Verlander has been rock solid and is a leading contender for Cy Young honors.  More importantly, for tonight in particular, the Orioles don’t hit him particularly well.  Tonight’s starting lineup, collectively, has only one homer off Verlander – ever.  And the Detroit ace has been around awhile, as have a few of the O’s hitters.  He’s also 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 28 strikeouts in his last three starts.  One Fanduel strategy tip – pitchers cap out at 9900.  If they couldn’t, and the algorithm was allowed to play out naturally, Verlander would cost you 20% more.  He also has a 1.51 at home with about a K an inning.  He is also 7-0 lifetime vs the O’s.  Personally, I’m rooting for the Birds as I always do.  But with these numbers, I go with my head over my heart.
  • Matt Cain  – IHe’s been slumping a little bit in the last month.  For that reason you can get him cheaper than usual.  He was solid his last time out.  His last appearance was 7 1/3, 2 run ball.  His also struck out 6.  He’s stronger at home, but in Petco I like him.  He is 10-0 with 2 or more runs of support this season.  The Giants face a struggling Ross Ohlendorf.

Hitting

  • Howie Kendrick – Not only is the Angels second baseman starting to get hot – he is 7 for his last 21 with a .400 OBP this month – but he absolutely lights Jamie Shields up!  He is 12-21 with 5xbh off the Rays starter.  Kendrick obviously sees the ball well off him.  Little extra … I like another 2b this evening.  Ian Kinsler crushes lefties – .368 with half his homers.  Against Happ tonight.
  • David Wright – Watch the weather on this one, but I like Wright to start really turning things around.  He had a hit last night.  He is 5-12 with a homer and three doubles off Washington southpaw Ross Detwiler.

Lineup Stack

  • Marlins– Jeff Francis is not good.  The Colorado air still produces a little offensive advantage.  The heart of the lineup, especially Stanton and Lee is pretty solid.
  • Mets – Again, watch the weather, but they hit Detwiler well.  Hairston, Wright, and Bay all look pretty good to me for tonight if the weather holds.

Value

  • Scott Hairston – Assassinates lefties.  Over .300 with 9 homers in only 138 at-bats on the season.
  • Gorkeys Hernandez – Besides having an awesome name, Hernandez is hitting second in a lineup that should do some damage against Francis tonight.  Costs near the minimum.

Pick of the Day

  • Unfortunately, Verlander.  Prove me wrong O’s!