May 17, 2013

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Pitching

  • James Shields – He’s had a tough time getting wins, but he has pitched brilliantly.  Shields is 1-1 with a 1.57 and more than 20 strikeouts in his last three starts.  That’s strong.  He has a winning record against Oakland in his career and, save Daric Barton, no Athletic hits him particularly well.  The KC bats are strong if streaky.  I look for Shields strikeouts and a Royals W.  You get a fair amount of value with Shields in Fanduel.
  • Gio Gonzalez  - Gio pitched beautifully his last time out and actually left with a lead.  The bullpen blew it and he couldn’t log the win.  He pitches in oh so large Petco tonight.  The Nats beat up on the Padres last night.  Strasburg was strong.  I’m looking for Gio to continue the trend and really start to find his groove.  He has been strong against the Padres in limited work.  The one Padre hitter he has a lot of experience against – and not a lot of success – is Carlos Quentin.  If you’re looking to fade Gio, or want to pitch Gio but want some insurance, Quentin is the guy.  (You would do a strategy like that – playing both – in a head to head matchup or in a 3-5 team league.  In bigger tourneys, you’ve got to pick one or the other.)

Hitting

  • JP Arencibia – JP hits cleanup tonight for the Jays.  He’s had a ton of success against Kuroda in his career – going 7 for 15 with 3 XBH and one homer.  He’s been slumping a little at only 2 of his last 17.  Look for a breakout tonight.
  • Brandon Phillips – 9 for 29 lifetime with 5 XBH and a homer off the powerful Cliff Lee.  I like great stats against great pitchers.  It often means the hitter sees the ball exceptionally well for whatever reason.  Phillips also has two homers in the last week including one yesterday.  Ride the heat wave.

Lineup Stack

  • Orioles– The middle of the lineup – Davis, Jones and Markakis (in reverse order, that is) absolutely light up Jeremy Hellickson.  Furthermore, Hellickson struggles a little in Camden Yards, nearly half a run higher than at his home, the Trop.  Most importantly, Hellickson is only pitching to a 5.25 ERA on the year, with a 7.02 in his last three.  Look for him to get roughed up this evening.

Value

  • Nick Markakis - Two homers, six RBI and only two career strikeouts against Hellickson.  Hitting in the three hole this evening at the Yard.
  • David Murphy - Although he’s having a relatively quiet year, Murphy is a strong hittter, capable of smacking out two in a night.  This is especially true versus Rick Porcello.  He’s 6 for 12 with a dinger against the Tigers right hander.  He is also 7 of his last 18 with two homers over the last week.

Pick of the Day

  • David Murphy - Heating up.  Good history.

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks and a Busy Life

I’m glad I discovered Daily Fantasy baseball this year.  It’s been fun.  I’ve won quite a bit, despite a relatively long streak where I couldn’t seem to get anything going.

I made daily fantasy baseball picks quite a few times.  It’s time consuming to do it right.  Doing it right means a lot of research.  Originally, I thought I would be able to do it most days.  Then I realized daily fantasy baseball picks twice a week would be time consuming enough.  I do, after all, have a job.  I actually already have multiple jobs.

Lately, my work has been so busy that it’s damn near impossible.  With work, more work, and a baby on the way, I’m going to put daily fantasy baseball on the shelf for now.

I will certainly be back for playoff fantasy baseball for money.  Playoff baseball is awesome.  Combining it with sites like Fanduel, Daily Joust and DraftDay just makes it that much better.  I think the playoff version has a real future.  I think DFB sites will essentially eliminate other playoff fantasy baseball sites.

The baby isn’t due for a few more months.  Work was really the catalyst.  Beyond that, football season is upon us.  The overlap that September and October brings makes it by far the best sports time of the year, in my opinion.  I do have three year long fantasy football leagues that I’m a part of.  Moreover, I plan on making weekly fantasy football picks to play on weekly sites, often the same sites as baseball.

So, without further ado… Have a good rest of the baseball season, a great playoffs, and a good year in football.  Enjoy.  See you on the regular next April.

August 30, 2012

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Pitching

  • Clayton Kershaw – He dominated last year’s second half.  He might repeat for the Cy Young.  He’s 2-1 with a 2.63 era over his last three starts.  His splits indicate a 2.27 at home, where he is tonight against the Diamondbacks.  Pitching is the key to success tonight, with a short lineup.  You can win daily fantasy baseball heads up games with just a top starter.  You can also pick Matt Moore tonight.  You can even pick Greinke at home vs. the Bo Sox.  I’m going with Kershaw because of his home era and his good career record vs. the DBacks.

Hitting

  • Yadier Molina – The law of averages almost makes me want to stay away from it.  Molina is 7-8 lifetime with a homerun against Nationals starter Edwin Jackson.  Think Molina see the ball pretty well off of him?

Lineup Stack

  • Giants– This is as much about betting against someone as it is betting on someone.  I’ve got to go against Astros starter Lyles tonight.  He hasn’t been awful – 4.24 with 13 K’s in his last three starts – but he han’t been great.  Furthermore, I spent much of the budget on Kershaw, meaning I need a relatively cheap lineup.  The Giants fit this better than most.  Considered the Royals, but nobody stands out against Porcello.  I also considered the Nats against Cards lefty Garcia, but they are simply too expensive.  I am rounding out the roster with Morse, though.

Value

I’m reaching to guys like Brandon Crawford and Gregor Blanco.

Pick of the Day

  • Kershaw