Strategy Tip: What Have You Done for me Lately?

In three years of playing daily fantasy baseball, I’m ready to declare something.  And I must provide the caveat: this is based on feel, not empirical evidence.  I generally tried to provide daily fantasy baseball strategy based on statistics, not just feel.  However, in this case, it’s feel not data.

You will benefit more from hot streak hitters than you will from history versus a particular pitcher.

Spend the bulk of your time studying who’s been hot lately.  It’s amazing how long a hot streak can last.  With a handful of guys, it might last damn near the whole year.  Don’t think a guy can’t keep doing what he’s doing.  Trust recent history.  If your guy is hot, go with it!

You can study the match-ups all day long, but, in the end, if your guy is 0 for his last 14, stay away.  A guy might hit .500 off a particular pitcher, but if he’s in a slump, it won’t matter.  Maybe the last two times your guy faced that pitcher he was hot and that’s why the numbers are so good.  Your guy facing the pitcher at issue tonight is how reversion to the mean happens.

I’m not suggesting batter-pitcher history is irrelevant.  Quite the contrary.  It’s probably second most important behind how the hitter has been performing lately.  Recent performance, however, is number one!  Ie the title of the post – What have you done for me lately?

Most hitters are neither hot nor cold.  Most hitters are run of the mill.  If they’re a .270 hitter, they are 4 for their last 15 or something similar.  If they’re a .320 hitter with power, they are 6 for their last 17 with a homer.  Neither hot nor cold.  With these neither hot nor cold hitters, history becomes crucially important.

But faced with recent history or distant history, I’m going with recent, even if it means ignoring the matchups.