May 17, 2013

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks

Pitching

  • James Shields – He’s had a tough time getting wins, but he has pitched brilliantly.  Shields is 1-1 with a 1.57 and more than 20 strikeouts in his last three starts.  That’s strong.  He has a winning record against Oakland in his career and, save Daric Barton, no Athletic hits him particularly well.  The KC bats are strong if streaky.  I look for Shields strikeouts and a Royals W.  You get a fair amount of value with Shields in Fanduel.
  • Gio Gonzalez  – Gio pitched beautifully his last time out and actually left with a lead.  The bullpen blew it and he couldn’t log the win.  He pitches in oh so large Petco tonight.  The Nats beat up on the Padres last night.  Strasburg was strong.  I’m looking for Gio to continue the trend and really start to find his groove.  He has been strong against the Padres in limited work.  The one Padre hitter he has a lot of experience against – and not a lot of success – is Carlos Quentin.  If you’re looking to fade Gio, or want to pitch Gio but want some insurance, Quentin is the guy.  (You would do a strategy like that – playing both – in a head to head matchup or in a 3-5 team league.  In bigger tourneys, you’ve got to pick one or the other.)

Hitting

  • JP Arencibia – JP hits cleanup tonight for the Jays.  He’s had a ton of success against Kuroda in his career – going 7 for 15 with 3 XBH and one homer.  He’s been slumping a little at only 2 of his last 17.  Look for a breakout tonight.
  • Brandon Phillips – 9 for 29 lifetime with 5 XBH and a homer off the powerful Cliff Lee.  I like great stats against great pitchers.  It often means the hitter sees the ball exceptionally well for whatever reason.  Phillips also has two homers in the last week including one yesterday.  Ride the heat wave.

Lineup Stack

  • Orioles– The middle of the lineup – Davis, Jones and Markakis (in reverse order, that is) absolutely light up Jeremy Hellickson.  Furthermore, Hellickson struggles a little in Camden Yards, nearly half a run higher than at his home, the Trop.  Most importantly, Hellickson is only pitching to a 5.25 ERA on the year, with a 7.02 in his last three.  Look for him to get roughed up this evening.

Value

  • Nick Markakis – Two homers, six RBI and only two career strikeouts against Hellickson.  Hitting in the three hole this evening at the Yard.
  • David Murphy – Although he’s having a relatively quiet year, Murphy is a strong hittter, capable of smacking out two in a night.  This is especially true versus Rick Porcello.  He’s 6 for 12 with a dinger against the Tigers right hander.  He is also 7 of his last 18 with two homers over the last week.

Pick of the Day

  • David Murphy – Heating up.  Good history.